Congratulations to ESP’s Ian Mowatt!
This research began under the 2023-2024 MEIF-funded Maine-Greenland Collaboration grant. Ian joined this research in 2024, when he received a UROP Fellowship that was subsequently selected for funding by NASA’s Undergraduate Research Experience program, administered in Maine by the Maine Space Grant Consortium.
Ian continues to develop his skills in ecological modeling and hopes to continue this line of research by examining range shifts in birds and other organisms in response to climate-driven changes to habitat around the globe.
Title: The Role of Climate in the Geographic Expansion of Ixodes scapularis: A Predictive Modeling Approach.
Ian R. Mowatt and Joseph Staples (ÐÓ°É´«Ã½, Environmental Science and Policy, Gorham, ME)
Abstract – The geographic expansion of Ixodes scapularis (Blacklegged Tick), the primary vector of the bacteria Borrelia burgdorferi that is a major causative agent of Lyme disease, has been strongly influenced by climate change, reforestation, and shifts in host populations. This study integrates correlative and mechanistic modeling approaches to evaluate the species’ future distribution under projected climate scenarios. MaxEnt modeling, utilizing WorldClim CMIP6 data (2041–2060), predicts continued northward expansion into southern Canada, driven by increasing minimum winter temperatures. Meanwhile, DYMEX simulations, incorporating physiological stress thresholds, confirm that for up to a +3 °C temperature increase, habitat suitability increases in northern latitudes while extreme summer heat may impose physiological limits on populations in the southeastern US. The results highlight potential declines in cold stress as a historical barrier to tick survival, supporting the likelihood of continued establishment in previously unsuitable areas such as northern New England, the Great Lakes region, and southern Canada. Alternatively, increasing summer heat stress may stabilize or slightly reduce tick populations in regions where temperatures exceed their thermal tolerance. These findings have significant public health implications, as the expanding range of Blacklegged Ticks may lead to increased Lyme disease risk in newly colonized areas. This study combines predictive modeling approaches to enhance assessments of future Blacklegged Tick distributions, emphasizing the need for proactive vector surveillance and targeted disease-prevention strategies in a changing climate.